Original Published Date: 
Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Full article issued by the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research

ARC-supported researchers at the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) at The Australian National University have produced the first wide-ranging global economic assessment of the effects of Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) to help policymakers prepare a coordinated response to the economic costs of a pandemic as the virus evolves.

The research paper models seven scenarios. Four of the seven scenarios examine the impact of Covid-19 spreading to other countries outside of China, ranging from low to high severity. A seventh scenario examines a global impact where a mild pandemic occurs each year indefinitely.  

Even in the paper's 'low severity scenario', the estimated loss to global GDP is $US2.4 trillion, with more than 15 million deaths globally. The costs rise sharply as the level of severity increases, with the highest potential cost to global GDP rising to $US9 trillion.      

The researchers call for a coordinated policy response to the virus, as well as greater investment in public health in all countries.     

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