Improper adoption of climate impact modelling could leave us ill prepared for even higher temperatures and more frequent heatwaves, according to new research.
Original Published Date: 
Thursday, January 9, 2020

Full article issued by The University of Melbourne.

ARC-supported researchers have compared two major climate modelling methods, one of a transient climate, where the global temperatures are continuing to rise, and another where the climate has reached an equilibrium after rising over the course of centuries. 

Published in Nature Climate Change, the study has found that, in order to be effective, climate change policies need to take into account the significant differences between transient and equilibrium climate models.

Lead researcher and ARC Discovery Early Career Research Award (DECRA) recipient Dr Andrew King from the University of Melbourne’s School of Earth Sciences has said that it would be more appropriate to take into account transient modelling to prepare climate change policies for the near future.

“Differences in methods used to simulate future climates could lead to inadequate information, and the development of ineffective policies,” Dr King said, “especially in building resilience for future extreme heat events.”

The transient future climate models show that the land surface would experience warmer average temperatures than in equilibrium models, where the passage of time to reach equilibrium would have redistributed heat from land regions to the oceans. This has implications for 90 per cent of the world’s population, who would experience higher local temperatures and twice the number of heatwaves, compared with the same global temperature after an equilibrium was reached.

The study also showed that using multiple modelling methods would more comprehensively help to examine the impacts of the Paris Agreement global warming levels.  

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Improper adoption of climate impact modelling could leave us ill prepared for even higher temperatures and more frequent heatwaves, according to new research. Source: Wikipedia (Public Domain).